Bowing down to pressure from his party colleagues following his debate with Donald Trump, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 race endorsing his deputy Kamala Harris for the top job. Harris is yet to be formally announced as the Democratic nominee for 2024 presidential elections but her “intention is to earn and win this nomination.”
Here’s what a Harris presidency could mean for the US stock markets as well as various sectors like energy, healthcare, and artificial intelligence (AI).
On behalf of the American people, I thank Joe Biden for his extraordinary leadership as President of the United States and for his decades of service to our country.
I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination.
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) July 21, 2024
Kamala Harris Is More Left-Leaning Than Biden
Harris, who made history by becoming the first female and Black vice president of the US is generally seen as more left-leaning than Biden. Her views on multiple key areas like immigration, climate change, and healthcare are much to the left of Biden. She also proposed strict gun controls in the past.
Kamala Harris’ Stance on Green Energy and Fossil Fuels
While the proposed economic policies of Democrats and Republicans are quite different from each other, the divergence is particularly stark when it comes to energy policies. Biden is a green energy enthusiast and under his leadership, the US rejoined the Paris Climate Deal that Trump withdrew from. Trump, on the other hand, is a climate change denier who likes to repeat the refrain “Drill baby drill”.
Biden took several steps under his Inflation Reduction Act to increase the adoption of green energy and electric vehicles and Harris might double down on those efforts if she succeeds the octogenarian.
Harris is even a bigger proponent of green and renewable energy and has opposed fracking and offshore drilling in the past and even said that she would ban fossil fuel leases on state land. She was among the early co-sponsors of the Green New Deal that proposed transitioning the US to completely to clean energy within a decade.
Harris backed a “climate pollution fee” to “make polluters pay for emitting greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.” In her 2020 presidential campaign, she talked about a $10 trillion climate plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045.
A Harris presidency could be negative for the US oil and gas industry. That said, despite Biden’s green credentials, the US became the world’s largest oil producer in his tenure with production rising to a new record high. Given the changed oil markets post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it remains to be seen if Harris takes a tough stance on fossil fuels which could jeopardize the country’s energy security.
However, a major push towards renewable energy and away from dirty energy would save the global economy trillions of dollars as the effects of climate change are set to wreak havoc on the world.
Millions of Americans are burdened by medical debt
With negative consequences for their finances, healthcare access, and physical and mental health
Since day one, @VP Kamala Harris has spearheaded @WhiteHouse policy to reduce this burden
— Neale Mahoney (@nealemahoney) July 21, 2024
Harris’ Healthcare Policies
Harris backed the “Medicare for All” proposal proposed by Senator Bernie Sanders in 2017. However, in 2019, she moderated his position on the proposal that would lead to a single-payer, national healthcare system. If she were somehow able to implement such a system, Americans would save countless billions of dollars on healthcare.
In 2016, she joined 11 other state attorneys general and sued the proposed merger between Cigna International and Anthem. Opposing the merger between the insurance giants she had then said, it “would significantly undercut competition, driving up health care costs for consumers and employers.”
Harris has spoken for the need for maternal health multiple times and was the lead Senate sponsor of the Black Maternal Health Momnibus Act that directs multi-agency efforts to improve maternal health, particularly among vulnerable groups, racial and ethnic minorities, and veterans.
Beginning in 2026, several drugs are subject to Medicare pricing negotiations. These include Eliquis, a blood thinner marketed by Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer, Enbrel, marketed by a wholly owned Amgen subsidiary, and anti-diabetic medication, Januvia, marketed by Merck. Policy experts argue that it’s ridiculous that Medicare will only be able to negotiate the prices of a few drugs but it’s better than nothing. It’s possible that Harris would extend this plan to cover more medicines to save Americans billions of dollars.
Harris might not be the best bet for Big Pharma companies, given her stance about the sector, but socializing the extremely troubled US healthcare system could do much more good than harm and may even help the economy overall.
Harris Could Be Friendlier to Big Tech
Meanwhile, Harris could be friendlier towards Big Tech companies – a space that has faced attacks from across the political spectrum. As a candidate for California attorney general, she reportedly told potential donors that she was “a capitalist.” While more left-leaning Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren called for breaking up Big Tech – a clamor several other leaders have backed – Harris does not believe that’s the right approach.
She instead believes that Big Tech should be “regulated in a way that we can ensure the American consumer can be certain that their privacy is not being compromised.”
She has received the backing from several leading tech executives including LinkedIn’s co-founder Reid Hoffman who is now a prominent venture capitalist. Billionaire John Doerr and venture capitalist Ron Conway have also backed Harris.
As a San Francisco-based politician, she is well linked to tech companies, and Facebook’s former chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff have been her supporters.
Millions of Americans have no idea how much data Facebook is collecting, from tracking their location and IP address, to following their activities on other websites. https://t.co/5KbQIT9n2H
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) May 20, 2018
That said, her views are a bit nuanced and she has backed tighter regulations in the tech sector. In a Twitter thread, Harris, who previously called upon Twitter (Now X) to ban Trump, said, “Millions of Americans have no idea how much data Facebook is collecting, from tracking their location and IP address, to following their activities on other websites.”
AI Regulations Under Harris
Harris has been quite vocal about AI and in a November 2023 address she talked about the “existential” threat of AI and said it could “endanger the very existence of humanity.”
She also backed Biden’s executive order on AI that sought stronger protections for consumers. Harris said these “voluntary commitments are an initial step toward a safer AI future with more to come, because, as history has shown, in the absence of regulation and strong government oversight, some technology companies choose to prioritize profit over the wellbeing of their customers, the safety of our communities, and the stability of our democracies.”
Notably, AI regulations are a burning issue and countries globally are trying to figure out how to regulate the technology.
Harris could be also good for merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the tech industry as she is not seen as an antitrust hawk like some other Democrats. Jim Cramer believes that she could be better for both M&As and US businesses as compared to Biden.
Stance on Cryptocurrencies and Cannabis
Harris hasn’t said much publicly about her views on cryptocurrencies. The crypto market’s reaction to Biden quitting the race was quite mixed and while Bitcoin initially fell on the news, the largest cryptocurrency eventually recovered. As for the crypto market, some think that “crypto president” Donald Trump and JD Vance as vice president would be a better bet.
Biden started the process to reschedule marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act which would place it in a category with less dangerous substances. Harris’s views on cannabis legalization have evolved over the years.
She had opposed a California ballot initiative in 2010 to legalize marijuana. However, during the 2015 Democratic State Convention, she called for an end to the federal ban on the medical use of cannabis. In 2016, as then-Attorney General, she however did not take any stance when Californians voted to legalize adult-use marijuana.
She has of late warmed up to the legalization of marijuana and backed the Marijuana Justice Act, SAFE Banking Act, and the MORE Act. In a 2019 interview with The Breakfast Club, Harris admitted to smoking cannabis while in college and reiterated her support for legalizing it at the federal level. This would lead to a massive boom for the cannabis industry.
Harris’ Presidency Could Bring Continuity
Meanwhile, some see a status quo on economic policy if Harris goes on to become the next US president. Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told MarketWatch that “A Harris presidency would be, for all intents and purposes, a continuation of the Biden administration.” Also, if Republicans take back the Senate as is widely expected, Harris won’t have much legroom to sign partisan legislations.
Tech stocks meanwhile are bouncing off today while the Nasdaq is up nearly 1% as markets digest Biden quitting the 2024 race and Harris potentially taking over the baton.